New Zealand · 12.09.2026

Tongariro

Level 2: 2300 m–and above · Level 1: 1800 m–2300 m · Level 1: 1800 m–and above

Moderate

Danger level

2 — Moderate

Snowpack stability

The snowpack is only moderately well bonded on some steep slopes; otherwise well bonded in general.

Likelihood of triggering

Triggering is possible, primarily from high additional loads, particularly on the indicated steep slopes. Very large natural avalanches are unlikely.

Avalanche problems

Wind slab
Wind slabs are formed when loose snow in near-surface layers (new snow or old snow) is transported and deposited by wind.
Avoid wind-drifted deposits in steep terrain.
Affected aspects
NorthwestNorthNortheastEastSoutheast
Wet snow
The avalanche problem is related to a weakening of the snowpack due to the presence of liquid water. Water infiltrates the snowpack due to melt or rain.
Good timing and trip planning are important. Consider avalanche runout zones.
Affected aspects
WestNorthwestNorthNortheastEast

Stability

In the past 24 hours, the 5cm of new snow from the night of the 10th was redistributed by moderate westerly winds to eastern terrain features. Then, a skier-supportive rime crust formed on all windward aspects above 1800m creating slick surface conditions on any exposed terrain and isolated wind slab deposits in any lee terrain features. Beneath these variable surface conditions is a firm, stable, consolidated snowpack to ground. Below 1800m, the snowpack is quickly diminishing from rain-on-snow events and strong solar radiation creating an isothermal trending snowpack throughout.

Snow quality

Multiple small-size 1 windslab avalanches were reported by Turoa ski patrol on the 11th. These wind slabs were isolated in distribution, failing 10-15 centimeters down and propagating 10- 15 meters from the skiers who triggered them.

Weather

Tonight, clouds are forecast to develop, creating obscured conditions at all elevations throughout the national park. These obscured conditions are anticipated to improve around 12 pm on Sunday the 13th. Wind is forecast to increase to moderate southwesterlies early morning on the 13th, then slowly taper off to light gusts and swing to the north Sunday afternoon.There is 2-5 centimetres forecast to fall down to 1700 metres overnight. The freezing level will likely hover around 1700m throughout the next 24 hours as southwesterly flow persists.

European Avalanche Danger Scale

Official scale used by European avalanche warning services.

5 — Very high
Snowpack stability
The snowpack is poorly bonded and largely unstable in general.
Likelihood of triggering
Numerous very large and often extremely large natural avalanches can be expected, even in moderately steep terrain.
4 — High
Snowpack stability
The snowpack is poorly bonded on most steep slopes.
Likelihood of triggering
Triggering is likely, even from low additional loads, on many steep slopes. In some cases, numerous large and often very large natural avalanches can be expected.
3 — Considerable
Snowpack stability
The snowpack is moderately to poorly bonded on many steep slopes.
Likelihood of triggering
Triggering is possible, even from low additional loads, particularly on the indicated steep slopes. In certain situations some large, and in isolated cases very large natural avalanches are possible.
2 — Moderate
Snowpack stability
The snowpack is only moderately well bonded on some steep slopes; otherwise well bonded in general.
Likelihood of triggering
Triggering is possible, primarily from high additional loads, particularly on the indicated steep slopes. Very large natural avalanches are unlikely.
1 — Low
Snowpack stability
The snowpack is well bonded and stable in general.
Likelihood of triggering
Triggering is generally possible only from high additional loads in isolated areas of very steep, extreme terrain. Only small and medium natural avalanches are possible.

Avalanche problems

Typical problem types defined by EAWS.

New snow
The avalanche problem is related to current or most recent snowfall. The amount of additional loading by new snow onto the existing snowpack is the crucial factor of the new snow problem. How critical the loading is, depends on various factors such as air temperature, wind or characteristics of the old snow surface.
Wind slab
Wind slabs are formed when loose snow in near-surface layers (new snow or old snow) is transported and deposited by wind.
Persistent weak layers
The avalanche problem is related to the presence of one or more persistent weak layers in the old snowpack. These weak layers typically include faceted crystals, depth hoar or surface hoar crystals.
Wet snow
The avalanche problem is related to a weakening of the snowpack due to the presence of liquid water. Water infiltrates the snowpack due to melt or rain.
Gliding snow
The entire snowpack is gliding on the ground, typically on smooth ground such as grassy slopes or smooth rock zones. High activity of glide-snow avalanches is typically related to a thick snowpack with no or only few weak layers. Glide-snow avalanches can occur both with a cold dry snowpack and with a warm moist or wet snowpack. The release of a glide-snow avalanche is difficult to predict, although in many cases glide cracks open prior to release.
Cornices
A wave-like formation of soft or hard wind drifted snow, often overhanging.